PENGUIN ORANGE SPINES : THE BLACK SWAN THE IMPACT OF THE HIGHLY IMPROBABLE PB B

The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person Will Self, Independent on Sunday He leaps like some superhero of the mind Boyd Tonkin, Independent